Modeling of CO₂ strategies

fka has comprehensive toolkit of analysis and modeling methods at its disposal for the valid definition of technology portfolio strategies for CO₂ reduction

The aim of the modeling itself is to determine the (possible) influences of certain components or technologies on the CO₂ fleet emissions of a specific vehicle fleet. A fleet can be defined, for example, by vehicle segments, powertrain architectures or by OEMs. Optimisation calculations can be used to derive statements about the market penetration of various powertrain concepts and technologies.

Areas of application are investigations of individual components, complete systems and entire technology and vehicle portfolios.

The modeling takes place in three steps:

1. Data Generation

• Demand-oriented analysis of international CO2 monitoring data
• Technology screening including CO₂ potentials in different cycles
  
  • Consideration of manufacturing costs, mass effects and learning curves
  • Simulative determination of CO₂ potentials in cooperation with our powertrain division
• Aggregation of data at system level to reduce complexity

2. Model definition and calculation

• Bottom-up modeling of vehicles, manufacturer and total market fleets under consideration of technological interactions.
• modeling of optimised technology strategies on base of relevant target variables, e. g.:
  
  • Maximum cost efficiency from the perspective of the OEM / supplier
  • Demand-oriented solution, e. g. maximum sales potential
  • Economic optimum of costs / sales
• Scenario technique for the representation of alternative future developments under consideration of accompanying framework conditions, including sensitivity analyses
• High-resolution and time-dynamic modeling of the vehicle market
• TCO modeling to determine the total costs during a useful life
• End-user utility value analyses

The study can be supplemented by CO₂ life cycle modeling, which is preceded by a life cycle analysis of the component or the complete system (LCA). The lifecycle analysis can be carried out starting from component level up to an assessment of whole vehicle fleets. In that way, the actual sustainability effect of the use of certain technologies can be validly determined.

3. Strategic implications

The results of the model analysis are used alone or in combination with further strategic tools (e. g. SWOT analyses) to derive strategic implications for our clients. These implications include

• Definition of possible technology portfolio strategies
• Identification of strategic product fields
• Analysis of threat potential for the current product portfolio
• Definition of sales and marketing strategies

In close coordination with the customer, specific roadmaps for action are finally developed together with the customer, taking into account the individual situation.